Brian @ CLRN

Just two weeks into the 2013 California eLearning Census, definite patterns regarding how online and blended learning are being utilized are emerging.

255 districts/charters have participated so far out of California’s 1777 school districts and direct-funded charters, which is a 14% response rate. (Our database includes 1014 school districts and 763 direct-funded charters.)  While we expect to reach 30% or more, most of the trends established early in the census have been consistent from the beginning.

Tipping Point Confirmed

Last year, 45% of all districts & charters were utilizing online or blended learning, although the number of students per district were quite small. This year, 46% of districts are eLearning and I suspect the number will increase to the mid-50s by the end.

Of those districts not eLearning, 25% shared they’re currently in the planning process to implement online or blended learning.

Where is online and blended learning taking place?

As with the 2012 census, online and blended learning take place predominately in grades 6-12. 81% of high schools, 51% of middle schools, and 30% of K-5 schools are implementing online/blended learning. I find it interesting that of the 118 elementary (K-5 or K-8) districts that have taken the census, only 15% are implementing eLearning, meaning that Unified districts (K-12) and charter schools are more likely to incorporate online or blended learning in elementary or middle school classrooms.

Blending Evolves

Last year, no one was surprised that Self-Blend was the primary blended model, given that the online learning disruption began with “non-consumers”. Providing students a choice to take a world language, AP course, or credit-recovery course not offered by their district helped to drive the online revolution.

Now that online/blended learning has passed tipping point and is growing towards critical mass, we’re beginning to see some diversity.  That the leading blended model in 2013 is “Rotation” doesn’t mean that districts have adopted the Rocketship model. It’s far more likely that Flipped Classrooms, one of Rotation’s variations, is the source of the shift.

Learning Management Systems: Open Takes the Lead

Many commercial online courses utilize a proprietary Learning Management System (LMS) created by the vendor, although several publishers use BlackBoard or BrainHoney for their back end. At school sites, though, there’s a different trend: open source. Currently, 37% of districts are using Edmodo for their LMS with Moodle or Moodle variations in second place. See a complete chart at the bottom of this post.

Content Providers

School districts are becoming more discerning about the courses they purchase. In our 2012 census report, we noted that 23% of districts & charters purchased courses from two or more providers. This year, 57% have indicated they are using online/blended courses from two or more publishers. With more districts implementing online or blended learning, districts may be more discerning about matching content to the needs of their students. Districts may also be recognizing that not all courses are equal or of high quality. It’s not unusual for publishers to have a mix of exceptional and average courses, so it’s even more important for districts to test drive the specific courses they plan to use.

For districts purchasing online courses, 26% are using Aventa, 22% Apex Learning, 19% K12, Inc, 16% OdysseyWare, 13% Pearson, 12% Cyber High, and 11% Plato.

For districts creating their own courses, the Khan Academy continues to dominate.

Where do teachers come from?

Who teaches students in online and blended courses? Only 20% of districts indicated that they use publisher-provided instructors. 70% of districts use their own teachers and 10% shared they use a combination of district and publisher instructors.

Are teachers prepared for an online/blended classroom?

When an instructor teaches an online or blended course, are they prepared? Have they received professional development in the differences between an online and face-to-face classroom? Do they have to tools to communicate with online students?

Surprisingly, 73% of districts say they’ve provided professional development, specific to online & blended learning, to their district teachers who instruct online courses.

Learning Management Systems

How many students are learning online in California? Are school districts expanding their Independent Study and summer school programs to take advantage of virtual learning? Where is online learning taking hold and what models are districts using to weave online with classroom instruction? Which learning management systems are popular in California? These are just a few of the questions the California Learning Resource Network (CLRN) will soon ask of all school districts and direct-funded charter schools in California.

CLRN will launch the second California eLearning Census March 1^st to measure online learning’s growth and impact. Working in partnership with the Evergreen Education Group, census data will help inform educators and policy makers about online learning’s trends and rapid proliferation in California. Survey data will also be published in the October 2013 Keeping Pace, a national eLearning census and report of eLearning trends.

CLRN is currently contacting all county offices, school districts and direct-funded charters to request their participation. The eLearning Census asks districts to count the number of students who are taking all their courses online away from school as well as those who are learning online at a school campus. It will also track those districts that have integrated online learning in their summer school programs, have utilized virtual courses in their Independent Study programs, and have blended online learning with traditional instruction.

Working with CLRN to notify districts are local CTAP regions, which normally provide technology professional development and technology plan assistance to districts.

We’ve all see online learning’s dramatic growth the past few years as an increasing number of districts embrace it to meet their students’ needs. Collecting and reporting this growth in California is one way to demonstrate how quickly districts are adopting it, point out assistance county offices can provide, and help inform policy makers regarding regulations that need to be changed to facilitate and monitor the learning revolution.

 California eLearning Census FAQ and 2012 Census Report

Video Presentation: California eLearning Census -  Trending Past the Tipping Point

Innosight Institute Blended Model Determination Tool

Last spring, CLRN collaborated with the Evergreen Education Group to create the California eLearning Census, an project to collect accurate virtual and blended learning populations, report the blended models in use, understand the distribution of course publishers in California, and inform the California state profile in Keeping Pace 2012. 30% of all California school districts and direct-funded charters participated in the census, which was conducted between March and May, 2012.

The California eLearning Census found that public school districts and direct-funded charter schools are quickly adopting online and/or blended learning ranging from offering individual courses to students, such as AP Calculus, to full-time virtual courses. Census data reflects 45% of districts and direct-funded charters who participated in the census reported students participated in online and/or blended learning in 579 schools, affecting a critical mass of districts and charters. The data, though, shows that while implementation is fairly wide, it is currently a relatively shallow pool, affecting just 3.4% of the total California student population. A significant number of districts and direct-funded charters (33%) had less than 30 students participating in full-time virtual learning, and 30% had less than 30 students participating in blended learning.  This is to be expected with any disruptive innovation. While Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns predicted that online learning would reach a tipping point in 2013, and with eLearning growing up to 30% each year, census data seems to indicate that this revolution is either trending towards or may have already passed a tipping point, particularly when accounting for the large number of census respondents (33%) that indicated they were in the planning stages to implement virtual or blended learning.

The California eLearning Census was created by CLRN as part of its mission to inform K12 educators about high-quality, CLRN-Certified online courses; highlight eLearning’s steady growth, trends and resources; and understand districts’ needs so that we can continue to provide relevant services to our customers.

Online and blended learning, while not new, have continued to grow consistently as districts and charters seek new ways to serve their students. With this revolution trending towards, or surpassing, the tipping point, eLearning enters its adolescence. Like all teenagers, continued guidance will be necessary to ensure it becomes a responsible adult.

Download the report here: http://www.clrn.org/census/ and/or watch the video below.

Here at CLRN, we’re beginning to review the California eLearning Census data in preparation for a white paper to be released late summer. To augment current census numbers, we’re beginning to inport virtual school attendance data from California’s annual school census taken each October and released in late spring. The California Basic Educational Data System results for all schools can be accessed through DataQuest, which is where we found virtual student populations for the 14 virtual schools that didn’t participate in the eLearning Census. Being a snapshot taken in early October, it doesn’t reflect growth during the school year. For example, the October count for California Virtual Academy @ Los Angeles was 4897 while the spring eLearning Census report was 5100. Still, CBEDS & DataQuest allow us to track student attendance over time, which is the focus for this brief post and a taste for what you can expect in the white paper.

Let’s start with how attendance has increased at the 10 California Virtual Academies, all independent direct-funded charter schools managed by K12, Inc. Attendance in 2009/10 was 10,379, which grew to 11,256 in 2010/11, an 8% increase. This year, the Academies report 13,125 students, representing a year-to-year growth of 17%. The chart below tracks their growth.

Compare the above chart with those below representing growth at the Rocketship schools, direct-funded charters emphasizing the Rocketship rotation method of blended learning. Of the five Rocketship schools, only two have been open three years. Their year-to-year growth was 10% in 2010/11 and 12% this year.

Three Rocketship schools have been operating at least two years, and the chart below represents their 17% year-to-year growth, which is identical to California Virtual Academy growth. Being a two-year chart, though, skews the growth line.

While the California eLearning Census won’t close until May 1st, the presentation below is a snapshot of the first 375 districts and direct-funded charters, representing 23% of all districts/charters. From the beginning, the data has startled me and has been incredibly consistent from the beginning. When i have time, i’ll create a narrated version of these slides using Hello Slide, a great Web 2.0 tool.